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The Benefits of Luck Analyzers (top)
by Mark Vargas
Oct 1, 2009
It seems like all of the major topics have been covered here in the past year(s); SB vs BB, ROI, when to move up stakes, BR management, shoving/calling ranges, useful software, relevant sample sizes, etc. I thought I might be able to add a small contribution that combines a few of these and doesn't get mentioned much: Adjusted Results.
We all know that there is both luck and skill involved in SNGs. When determining what games to play, what stakes, what styles, etc. it is difficult to compare your results to each other. Usually the sample sizes are too small to make any interesting revelations, and by the time you do have a decent sample size, you might realize that you would've been better off playing a different game/stake/style. Therefore I think these types of calculations are important for a) new SNG players that want to know their true ROI without playing thousands of games and b) experienced SNG regs who need to know what games/styles to play in order maximize hourly rates.
The first thing to do is get a program to calculate your adjusted results. I wrote my own, but HEM now has one or for benchmark purposes Juk's is well tested and accepted. You can find it here. These programs take every preflop all-in situation and calculate the statistically expected EV against the actual results. I know that there are many other forms of "luck" besides just PF all-ins, but this is easily the largest single factor that is out of your control and its adjusted results give a very accurate prediction of your true ROI. Here is a chart of a bad "Actual" stretch from a single buy-in level:
Note this chart is a 5,000 break-even chart (vertical axis is buy-ins). Using a luck analyzer shows that this player experienced a 200 buy-in unlucky stretch. Without a luck analyzer, surely these results would be enough to solidly determine that major playing adjustments need to be made, stakes need to be lowered, etc. In actuality, this player is playing reasonably well and may not need to make many adjustmets to his/her game. Now let's look at the full chart of this same data set:
The first chart was simply a magnified chart of games ~10,000-15,000. This 20k game chart shows a relatively smooth "Adjusted" results line.
For me personally, I use it the most when I'm on huge losing streaks. Several times it showed that I had just been experiencing the ugly end of variance and I continued to play through it. The other times it showed that I was legitimately losing and I then made adjustments to my game (moved down stakes, fewer tables, and more studying).
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Want to know how much the games were affected post UIGEA? Want to know how much tougher the games are in Jan/Feb due to all the regs gunning for SNE? Want to know how much softer the games are during the WSOP since many regs aren't online? Want to know if you'd be better off 12-tabling the 18-mans or 10-tabling the 9-mans? How many people have tried to move up stakes, got crushed, and scurried back down? You may have very well had the skill level to stay there, but with a small sample you just don't know. Once you get familiar with your luck analyzer, you can get these answers with relatively small sample sizes.
In past years a decent player who played a lot had a good enough feel for the games to determine when to move up/down, when table selecting was required, and what games to play. In today's environment, THAT IS NOT THE CASE! Any serious reg in today's environment has to fine-tune every aspect of his/her game in order to eke out the extra advantages.
Table selecting and constant assessment of your play with a luck analyzer is mandatory. If you haven't been using these tools and have just been going by your educated guess as in past years, you will eventually get burned when the variance hits. Two players that I respect the most just experiencecd this. I believe Spacegravy would never have made his prop bet if he had been utilizing these tools. Boku87 most likely isn't maximizing his hourly rate because he's focusing on volume and not which games are profitable to cherry pick. And these are arguably 2 of the top 5 SNG players in the world! What does that mean for you?
Be smart, don't get a huge ego, and concentrate on playing YOUR optimum game, at YOUR optimum stakes, with YOUR optimum villains.
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