Back in the swing
by Mark 'poker_in_pb' Vargas, Wed. 30 Sep 2009
It feels great to get back to the normal grind of SNGs after a rollercoaster WCOOP. I played the Super Tuesday satellites yesterday, which are the biggest sats of the week, and I won about $3k. That's my first winning Tuesday out of the last 8, so it's nice to get that monkey off my back. Here's a typical hand:
Seat 2: poker_in_pb (1200 in chips)
Seat 4: villain1 (300 in chips)
Seat 5: villain2 (1500 in chips)
Seat #5 is the button
poker_in_pb: posts small blind 100
villain1: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to poker_in_pb [Jd 9d]
villain2: calls 200
poker_in_pb: calls 100
villain1: checks
*** FLOP *** [9s 5d 2h]
villain1: checks
poker_in_pb: checks
villain2: bets 1300 and is all-in
villain1: calls 100 and is all-in
poker_in_pb: folds
*** TURN *** [9s 5d 2h] [2d]
*** RIVER *** [9s 5c 2h 2d] [8d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
villain1: shows [Kd 9h] (a pair of Nines)
villain2: shows [Ah Qh] (high card Ace) To his credit, at least he got the first part right by limping in, but why shove postflop? Errors like this give me so much confidence that my earning potential is still huge. If you include the more subtle plays around the bubble, then it's pretty easy to get +EV in these things. In any 5-7 hour session I see a play like this about 10x. Once in awhile I have a session where I don't see any glaring mistake by anyone, and then I start to get nervous that everyone's figured them out. Luckily those are the exception. I've also been tracking the PokerStars Battle of the Planets Jupiter board the past few months to try and figure out how much, on average, it can make you per tourney. Depending on the exact SNGs you're playing, it takes about 1063 points to break even (including rake, otherwise it would be 1000). The average for those players qualifying has been around 1105, which means that they are making about 4% ROI (1105-1063)/1063. That's actually really sick in today's environment. Anyways, there's $5k up for grabs in the high orbit leaderboard, with an average of 7.2 qualifying players. That means that each player, on average, will win $694. For low orbit, if you play all 5 bricks, then I'm guestimating that you have a 5/150 shot at the dough, which means $167 (5*5000/150). So that means BOP pays you 694+167=861 for your first 100 HS SNGs, or $8.61/SNG. Assuming an average buy-in of $400, that's an additional 2.1% ROI. Of course for every SNG you play over 100, then you get nothing back. Therefore, I'm thinking about mixing in 100HSSNG/week. I haven't played them much since I got into the Steps, but now that those are infested with regs also, I might as well get some BOP money! Good luck today, -PinPB
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